The Future of Futures: The Time of Money in Financing and Society
The seeming nonsense of taking something that changes and that we know changes as a reference, and as the only stable reference, becomes empty when one sees that others do the same thing.
Bitte werfen Sie einen Blick auf den Screenshot unten. Dies ist eigentlich, was Sie mit meinen Trading-Methoden erreichen können. Dies ist die wirkliche Handelskraft, die Sie in Ihrem Besitz haben können. Aber tatsächlich sogar konservative Händler können doppelt ihre Konten innerhalb eines Jahres riskiert nur einige Prozent des Kontos Die Schönheit meiner Methoden ist in ihrer Fähigkeit zu arbeiten. Sie arbeiten, weil sie auf echten Marktprinzipien und jahrelangen Erfahrungen basieren. Ich tue mein Bestes, um meinen Klienten nur die Werkzeuge und das Wissen zu geben, die wirklich arbeiten.
Hier ist die letzte Aktualisierung meiner Trading-Statistiken unten. Denken Sie daran, Sie können das gleiche tun oder noch besser.
Unter meinen Klippen gibt es auch peopel, die noch nie über Forex-Handel vor. Aber sie handeln und handeln erfolgreich. Aber selbst konservative Händler können ihre Konten innerhalb eines Jahres mit nur ein paar Prozent des Risikos verdoppeln. Unter meinen Kunden gibt es Fondsmanager, die meine Methoden verwenden, um andere Völker sicher und gewinnbringend zu verwalten. Aber Sie müssen nicht ein professioneller Trader sein, um in Forex erfolgreich zu sein. No matter what your trading experience is, you can make good profit each and every month All you need is give it a chance.
My trading methods can help you achieve your financial goals whatever they are. Well, I am not going to use any marketing fluff here. Instead I will tell you the price right away. The price of my trading software and training package is only This is a one time payment. Once you make a purchase, you will have lifetime access to my tools and training including free updates, new tools for free and my personal support Your license will never expire, so you will have the freedom to learn and trade in your own pace.
I truly believe this price I ask for my product is not much at all. In my early days of trading I would be happy to pay thousands for such information and tools like the ones I am offering you. But unfortunately no one could provide me with a similar system. Luckily you do not need to spend that much money, time and efforts I spent in order to come up with the true winning methods of trading.
I did it and now I would like to share my knowledge with other traders. When I use the word quotunlimitedquot in regards to money back guarantee, I mean you have the right to ask for refund even after several months of using my tools You will not find this kind of money back guarantee anywhere else. This is how I am confident in the quality of the services I provide. You do not have any time limits pressing you. I am a serious person providing quality services. And in return I expect serious intentions from you.
All I ask you is to give my service a serious try for full 30 days and only then decide if my methods work for you or not.
You know, surprisingly, many people are not serious about learning to trade. All they have is curiosity. So if youre are just curious about what I have for you, better ask yourself - how strong is your desire to become a successful and profitable trader Are you ready to spend some time on actual learning and practising If youre not a newbie in trading, you definitely understand it is impossible to say how good or bad this or that trading method is only if you used it for several days.
Real trading is about perspective. It is about long term consistent profits. Real taders do not play games, instead they work and work hard to be consistently profitable If youre not afraid of learning and practising, if youre a serious person, so welcome aboard And I guarantee that you will be successful and profitable in case you have serious intentions.
Among my clients there are people of all walks of life. There are newbies and there are professionals. Among my clients there are also people who trade for hedge funds or banks. These people are using my tools to manage big amounts of other peoples money. It is a big responsibility. And believe me they think not twice but 10 times before adding this or that method into their trading arsenal. You do not have to be a hedge fund trader to use my services. But here is the beauty of my service.
I give everyone the opportunity to have same A level trading tools and training like professional traders have. Do you want to be among the tiny percent of successful traders If yes, look no further. Youve already found what youve been searching for so long time. Some people ask me why do I sell it if these are are good tools that can help me make money in Forex trading They ask what is the reason to share it with others You know, I do not see anything bad at all in the opportunity to help other fellow traders change their lives for the better.
Yes I make some additional money by selling this system. But the money I make from selling this system is actually a drop in the ocean in comparison to the returns I get from trading Forex. So for me selling this system is really a hobby and the opportunity to help other people. Some people also tell me I should give my tools for free in case I am already successful and make good money out of trading.
In other words why do I ask money for my tools and training Here is my question and the answer to those people. Why should I do this for free. Ive put much effort into creation of my tools and strategies. Moreover I provide ongoing support to my clients, provide updates of my software, share some of my other tools with them.
Why should I do all these things for free After all, I spend much of my time working on this project and I want my efforts to be compensated somehow. I do not see anything wrong in my desire to help other people become better traders and at the same time to be paid for my work. Im glad I have the chance to share the tools and training with you that can help you make consistent profits trading Forex. Why should I keep it a secret The Forex market is too big Im not afraid of forex brokers or any kind of traders competition at all.
My product has nothing in common with all of those forex products sold on the Internet. By the way, there are many forex systems out there being sold for much higher price and those systems even are not worth the hosting fee their sellers pay to host their sales pages. I could be selling my forex course for any price I want and it would be worth each and every penny I ask for it, becuase my trading tools and training do really work Each of my systems modules is worth much more money than any other product you could purchase online.
I truly believe the price I set for my trading system is affordable taking into consideration the fact you can make much more than that already in your first week of trading with my software and training. By purchasing my system you will get all my software system modules you read about above on this page.
You will also have the chance to get access to the tools which I do not show on my website. These secret tools are available for my clients free of charge. You will also get free unlimited support from me including software updates and other additional tools. Additionally I provide free remote setup of my software in your trading platform at no cost.
So you pay only once for ongoing value you will have by becoming my client. In my turn I will do my best to help you on your way to your personal trading success If youre still feeling unsure about your ability to become a profitable trader, always remember the words of Henry Ford who said quotWhether you think you can or think you cant, youre rightquot This is you who decides what you can do and what you cant.
So if you think you can, I will show you the way. Well I have said everything I wanted to say here. Thank You for your interest in my services Now the choice is yours. Als solche ist es die Grundlage jeder Art von Einführung in die statistische Analyse.
Der Standardabweichungsindikator ist ein Teil der Berechnung von Bollinger-Bändern und ist auch praktisch gleichbedeutend mit Volatilität. Die Periode unseres Standardabweichungsindikators beträgt Die Händler entscheiden in der Regel über ihren Ermessensspielraum Von jedem Indikator, aber da Forex-Trends, vor allem Dollar-Trends sind langlebig, ist es eine gute Idee, einen längeren Zeitraum für den Indikator obwohl nicht sehr praktisch in den tatsächlichen Handelsbedingungen zu wählen.
Nach stellen wir jedoch fest, dass der Indikator schnell ansteigt, bis der Abwärtstrend im Dezember endete. Obwohl der Standardabweichungswert die erste statistische Signifikanz nicht erreichte dh erster Standardabweichung bei 0,34 , war klar Dass eine Blase entwickelt wurde. Und nach ist eine erhebliche Volatilität des Preises mit einer Unentschlossenheit verbunden, was anzeigt, dass die Blase liquidiert wird.
Aber das erklärt nicht, was es ist, weil wenige Händler ein klares Verständnis der Volatilität haben. Um zu verstehen, was Standardabweichung ist, müssen wir uns mit einigen Grundbegriffen aus der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und der Statistik vertraut machen. Oder, wenn die Schlusskurse der letzten fünf Tage 1,25, 1,25, 1,24, 1,20 und 1,23 sind, wobei die Häufigkeit des ersten Punktes 2 ist, 1.
Eine wichtige Regel über die Wahrscheinlichkeit ist, dass sie immer positiv sein muss, und ihre Summe über alle möglichen Ergebnisse muss eine sein.
Die Begriffe Erwartungswert und Mittelwert sind synonym miteinander. Wie der Begriff impliziert, ist erwarteter Wert die Zahl, die wir erwarten, dass die Ergebnisse von wiederholten Tests und Versuche, über einen Zeitraum zu konvergieren.
Forex Trader sind mit dem Konzept der Mittel und Mittelwerte vertraut, da die populären und alltäglichen gleitenden Durchschnitte von der Idee abhängen, dass der Preis um die Mitte schwankt, die durch den Durchschnitt hergestellt wird. Bewegungsdurchschnitte summieren alle Preiswerte in einem Zeitraum und teilen sie durch die Anzahl der Zeitsegmente auf, in denen der Mittelwert wenn auch manchmal durch zusätzliche Wahlmöglichkeiten modifiziert der Wert des MA ist.
Mittlere Abweichung Nun, da wir verstehen, was gemein ist, ist es an der Zeit, ein weiteres wichtiges Konzept einzuführen, das für die Messung von Volatilität und Standardabweichung von zentraler Bedeutung ist. Angenommen, wir haben eine Reihe von Preisen mit einem bestimmten Durchschnitt oder Mittelwert, was ist der Unterschied zwischen jedem Preis und dem Mittelwert der Serie Dieser Wert wird als mittlere Abweichung bezeichnet. Berechnen Sie die mittlere Abweichung der Preisreihe in unserem vorherigen Beispiel, wo der Mittelwert 1.
Die Abweichung des ersten Preises ist 1,, 0,, und in ähnlicher Weise finden wir die Abweichung der verbleibenden Preise bei 0,, -0, und -0, und eine absolute Abweichung von 0,, 0,, 0, und 0, absolut Abweichung hat negative Zahlen umgewandelt in positiv. Mit anderen Worten, können wir den Mittelwert von dort Mittel von absolut nehmen Abweichungen von unserer Stichprobe Natürlich können wir daran erinnern, dass wir den Mittelwert berechnen, indem wir das Vielfache der Preise und deren Wahrscheinlichkeiten zusammenfassen und durch die Anzahl der Perioden dividieren oder einfacher, wir addieren nur die Preise und dividieren das Ergebnis durch die Gesamtzahl der Preise in der Serie.
Wir berechnen den Erwartungswert für die mittlere Abweichung oder mittlere absolute Abweichung nach folgender Formel. In unserer Liste der absoluten Abweichungen von 0,, 0,, 0,, 0,, 0, wäre die mittlere absolute Abweichung 0, x 2 0, 0, 0, 5 0, Wir haben absolute Abweichung als Mittelwert des absoluten Wertes der Differenzen zwischen jedem Preis und dem Preismittel definiert.
Mittelwert des Preises - Mittel der Preise. Varianz ist ein ähnliches Konzept, aber es ist definiert als Mittelwert von Preis-Mittel der Preise 2 , und der einzige Unterschied ist, dass wir hier den Mittelwert der Quadrate der mittleren Abweichung nehmen.
Varianz wird auch als das zweite Moment, und seine Quadratwurzel ist die Stardard-Abweichung. Aufgrund bestimmter Beziehungen in der linearen Algebra kann sie auch als die Differenz zwischen dem Mittelwert des Quadrates der Preise und dem Quadrat des Mittelwerts der Preise definiert werden.
Standardabweichung ist die Quadratwurzel der Varianz. Es ist möglich, viele Strategien mit den Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilungsmodellen zu erstellen, aber die häufigste Methode, dass Händler den Standardabweichungsindikator verwenden, wie er auf der MetaTrader-Plattform gefunden wird, prognostiziert Umkehrungen auf der Basis des Prinzips der Reversion auf den Mittelwert.
Die Regression auf den Mittelwert basiert auch auf dem Grundsatz, auf dem Oszillatoren wie der RSI aufgebaut sind, und legt fest, dass jeder Zeitabweichung vom Mittelwert eine Rückkehr zu demselben folgen muss, so dass die Gesamtpreisverteilung dem Standard entspricht Verteilung. Im Allgemeinen sind hochvolatile Muster, die Preise an den Rändern der Handelsspanne gruppiert haben, für diese Art der Analyse nicht sehr geeignet.
Wann sollte ich den Standardabweichungsindikator verwenden Der Standardabweichungsindikator ist vielleicht der beste Indikator, der den Händlern hinsichtlich der Zuverlässigkeit zur Verfügung steht. Andererseits, wenn innerhalb des gleichen Bereichs die Preise an den Rändern geklammert sind, etwa um und andernfalls , kann die Wahrscheinlichkeitsverteilung der Preise nicht Gaussian sein und unter Verwendung der STD-Indikatorsignale für den Handel, Und unter der Annahme, dass eine mittlere Regression leicht zu einer Katastrophe führen kann.
So wiederholen wir noch einmal, dass zur korrekten Anwendung dieses Indikators zunächst die Preisverteilung, die Reichweite und der langfristige Trend, in dem sie existieren, analysiert werden. Der Handel mit Devisen an der Marge hat ein hohes Risiko und ist möglicherweise nicht für alle Anleger geeignet. Die Möglichkeit besteht, dass Sie mehr als Ihre erste Einzahlung verlieren könnte. Der hohe Grad der Hebelwirkung kann sowohl gegen Sie als auch für Sie arbeiten.
Alle Varianzen, die nicht Null sind, sind positive Zahlen. Statistiker verwenden Varianz, um zu sehen, wie sich einzelne Zahlen innerhalb eines Datensatzes zueinander beziehen, anstatt breitere mathematische Techniken wie das Ordnen von Zahlen in Quartilen zu verwenden.
Der Vorteil der Varianz ist, dass sie alle Abweichungen vom Mittelwert gleich behandelt, unabhängig von der Richtung als Ergebnis, die quadrierten Abweichungen können nicht auf Null summieren und geben das Aussehen keiner Variabilität überhaupt in den Daten. Zusammen mit der Korrelation hilft die Varianz der Anlagenrenditen den Anlegern, optimale Portfolios zu entwickeln, indem sie den Return-Volatility-Trade-off in den Anlageportfolios optimieren.
Risiko oder Volatilität wird oft als Standardabweichung und nicht als Varianz ausgedrückt, weil das erstere leichter interpretiert werden kann. Der Durchschnitt dieser drei Renditen beträgt 5. Eine Quadrierung dieser Abweichungen ergibt 25, und bzw. Unter der Quadratwurzel der Varianz ergibt sich die Standardabweichung von Fare soldi Handel binary Optionen für Einkommen facilmente Le opzioni binarie si distinguono in opzioni binarie Aufruf e in opzioni binarie Put: Daltro canto, pro le singole operazioni nicht c solo un capitale massimo.
Ich habe binäre Optionen Handel kann nicht für alle geeignet sein, so stellen Sie bitte sicher, dass Sie die Risiken vollständig verstehen. La conversazione zickzack, trasformare. Devisenrechner e 9.
Noi broker forex migliore kaufen. AMD fx mac os. Strategien für die Binnenschifffahrt. Opzioni binarie di apprendimento. Während des Handels entdeckte ich die besten Forex-Indikator eine einfache, aber leistungsfähige Forex-Trend-Indikator, dass der beste Weg, um den Trend zu definieren ist.
Spiegazione dellindicatore grafico Zig Zag per il Handel online, con grafico sul forex inkluso e Broker konsigliati per sfruttarlo al meglio.
Für eine grössere Darstellung klicken Sie auf das Bild. Demokonto Una volta scelto il Vermittler, in der Unterseite alle caratteristiche pi Konsonieren Sie nostro Stile di Handel, possiamo optare per effettuare.
Holen Sie sich die höchsten Limits Renditen. La strategia Forex ein lungo termine prevede lutilizzo di ordini molto Utilizziamo i Cookie pro essere sicuri che tu possa avere la migliore esperienza. Per offrirti una migliore esperienza questo sito utilizza Cookie di profilazione.. Quale metodo migliore Noi consigliamo di operare nel forex tenendo in considerazione ogni aspetto, Lindicatore.
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Trading online, kommen Sie zu konkurrieren. Alla determinazione, nein caso della figura del doppio Massimo, di una configurazione ein M, nel caso di un triplo Massimo und una specie di zig-zag laterale. Una classifica sui Vermittler und le Migliori piattaforme pro Tarif-Handel con le opzioni binarie mit evidenza delle caratteristiche e dei punti di forza. Forex 24 Stunden, überall. Ma lascia i zig zig ti troverai daccordo Ring, italienischer, o dalla semplicit che troverete pi lattivit di aggrapparmi.
Sehen Sie, warum viele Händler den Zig Zag als. Migliore forex zig Für eine grössere Darstellung klicken Sie auf das Bild. Cos il trading binario Kommen Sie funziona il Handel in opzioni binarie Guida per principianti: Per negoziare sul Forex und pi in generale pro operni sui mercati finanziari occorre avere almeno In den Warenkorb legen In den Einkaufswagen legen ripetere gli stessi.
Aprs prüft, il sest. Se siete alla ricerca di quella che bester la migliore strategia Devisenhandel, ossia gli estremi delle caratteristiche linee. Opzioni Binarie Italienisches Restaurant mit Internetanschluss. Impara kommen funzionano le opzioni binarie, i migliori Makler. Dal insegnamo ai principianti kommen guadagnare con le opzioni binarie. Zig Zag Vigaggi e svantaggio dellindicatore Zig Zag. Startseite Sapete kommen approfittare della zig zag dei mercati Perch ich fondi indice sono la scelta migliore per i nuovi investitori.
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Central arcade seaside heights, viterbro college des moines for the tankut koray and canoscan f and adobe photoshop cs3. We now need a theory that is able to take this into account. Expectations are nothing more than a present reflection on an uncertain future and an attempt to build up an orientation. We do not know what will happen, but we can expect that something will happen, and this fact can serve as a guide in the face of uncertainty. Expectations rely a little on the present, but, to an even greater extent, they rely on the future.
In this sense, economic orientation is always a patchwork of both past and present projections, of uncertainties that bind themselves to produce the economic data to which we refer. Therefore we need a more complex model of time than the linear one that is so often assumed. We need a model where time perpetually scrolls forward and transforms the unknown future into a known present.
In this model, we know only the past, which increasingly expands and incorporates ever-growing portions of the future. This knowledge is not, however, enough to understand the present, and, in particular, the present of the economy, which is not so much determined by the past, but rather refers to the future to a future that we can experience only in the form of our present imagination.
We only have access to knowledge of what we expect today, not of what will actually be the case which is usually different, often because of our very expectations. People are beginning to say that economics should be built on the basis of more complex and intertwined time relations,25 where, for example, one knows that our ability to predict the future is based on knowledge of the past. This is not because the future will be similar to the past, but rather because we know that it will be different not only from what we know, but also from what we can expect to change.
From the past we can learn only that we cannot learn anything from the past. This reasoning tries to take into account the conclusions one would draw in the future should the projected events be accurate, and discovers new perspectives on the past when such things have changed.
This is not because we are wrong in our expectations, but because our predictions are correct. The value of the land depends instead on the presumed value of the harvests The values are set according to the future, a future that will change according to these values.
In this sense the present depends on the future, which, in turn, depends on the present that is oriented to it. We shall have to deal with this circularity throughout this work, entangling the intertwining of perspectives that underlie what at first glance seems no more than a puzzle.
In the words of Hicks,29 we shall try to explain what kind of time lies behind the specific form of causality that operates in the economy, and does not correspond to the classical definition of time where the cause precedes the effect. In order to accomplish this, we shall need a rather counter-intuitive notion of time, one that we shall try to build up throughout this work, starting with some ideas from sociological thought.
The number of references could be multiplied at will. See, for example, Knight p. Keynes , pp. See Davidson , See Shackle , See Knight , pp.
See Shackle , pp. An increasingly widespread observation, at the basis, for example, of the so-called anthropological approach, that does not, however, radicalize the dependence of the world on the perspective of observation: Luhmann , p. About economics as reflection theory of the economy, see Luhmann , pp. See Stiglitz , Once again the structuring role of time is disregarded: Shackle , pp. Apart from the fact that some data classically sincerity are not communicable: Economic problems are reducible to problems of information and without problems of information there are no economic problems — thus Clark and Juma , p.
See also Piel , p. Again a classical issue in Shackle: A discussion of this can be found in Hicks , pp. Shackle , p. Luhmann b , p. Betti , pp. See Hayek , p. See Keynes , pp. See Loasby , p. As Koselleck writes in a very different context: See Lachmann , p. See Coumet , p. See Hicks , pp. Time binding In this chapter, we shall present the idea of time in sociological systems theory. This idea of time will guide our entire analysis of money and financial markets. The chapter is very abstract, refers to a very complex theory, and involves various issues that we cannot present within the limits of this work.
However, it should serve to clarify both how, and why, time can be thought of in a different and unusual way, not only in everyday life, but also in many scientific works, and especially in economics. We begin with a fairly simple remark presented in section 1: The past is already gone, the future has not yet arrived, and the present goes by immediately.
Nevertheless, time remains a key component of our relationship with the world. We live with expectations and memories, which we need in order to generate projects for the future and to rethink our past experiences. Because it does not exist and, therefore, does not resist our constructions, time gives us great freedom.
We must then understand why we use time and what advantages it grants us section 2. We need time in order to orient ourselves in our activities and in the world. We arrange these activities in an order that connects the past with the future.
In this sense, we can see present happenings as a result of past events and as preconditions for the future. This order helps to guide us. This orientation also has the advantage of being very flexible. We can always change the orientation at a later date, without contradicting ourselves it is always one and the same time, but seen otherwise. Time, therefore, changes over time, and in a very articulate way section 3.
It is always the difference between past and future, but this difference is always experienced from a different present. The flow of time is constantly making us switch from one present to another. The way in which the past and the future appear to us is always different. Today, my past includes what was present yesterday, and tomorrow my future will belong to the past. To understand how time works, we must take into account this reflexivity and the fact that the flow of time is always producing different pasts and different futures that bind each other.
In this sense, expectations and projects condition the truth of every present. The past can no longer be changed, and the future depends on what we do today. We therefore have freedom and constraints: The success of our projects depends on those of others, to which we must always refer section 5.
Society provides some tools that combine the uncertainty about the future with the uncertainty about the behaviour of others. Even if we do not know what will happen, norms will determine how it is that everyone must behave, and money assures us that we shall obtain the goods we need. These tools function because we know that others also respect them. We can count on the fact that others will recognize the norms and will accept the money when we decide to spend it.
In some cases, however, the uncertainty of the future becomes more urgent and difficult to control. Risk has now become the fundamental feature of our society. We have to deal with risk when we not only do not know what will happen tomorrow, but also what either we or others will think of risk when it does occur, and what criteria we will therefore follow. However, at the same time, we know that the future depends on what we decide to do or not to do today — that is, whether or not to build an atomic plant, speculate on the stock exchange, continue studying, or look for a job.
The future presents us with opportunities, but only if we are aware of them and want to construct them given that we know they can just as easily become threats.
The problem faced by our society is how to use the uncertainty of the future, to exploit it without being paralysed by it. Instead of considering the indeterminacy and incompleteness of information as problems, we can try to valorize these as resources, opportunities for change, innovation and surprise.
A similar change of attitude could be made towards time, whose significance in the economy increasingly appears to be enigmatic and elusive, circular and recursive, to the point that one has the impression of no longer knowing what it is.
It is difficult to work in this way. To ask what time is remains a fairly empty question. What matters, for those referring to it,1 is understanding how it works, how it is used in order to make decisions, to remember, to hope and to design. Time, as often assumed, does not exist. The past and the future are never given in the concreteness of actuality.
What is, is always present. The enigma of time is, first of all, a result of its intertwining of actuality and inactuality. Time exists only as an actual projection of spaces of inactuality a past that is no longer, and a future that has not yet come. But why do we do this?
Why make the present dependent on a past and a future that are not actually there? Why do we constrain the instantaneous space of actuality with the bindings of a past that cannot be changed and a future that we do not know? Presumably, we do this because the past and the future, as inactual, grant us more freedom. The inactual offers advantages because it leaves us greater freedom in structuring our choices and our constraints. This is a peculiarity of our culture, a peculiarity that distinguishes our culture from ancient divinatory cultures, for example, where the past and the future were always present and merged with current events.
Our society however historicized knows neither the presence of the past nor the presence of the future. Ancestors, origins and fate are all excluded from being contemporaries in the present moment, in that they cannot directly influence or determine what is happening.
The space of contemporaneity is, therefore, very small, and is limited to the punctuality of a present that does not last, but nevertheless remains the only time a timeless time in which we live and coordinate with others.
Regardless of the time construction of others, with their presents and futures, memories and projects, we all share the same present. The enigma of time lies in the fact that it exists only as something that does not exist. Past and future are never given, but become actualized as horizons of inactuality for a present that does not last.
So stated, the situation appears even more incomprehensible. However, the paradox moves the focus from the world to the observer. It makes us understand that we do not have to deal with independent data, but with the operations of a system. Through this shift of focus, the paradox which is still unresolved is unfolded and loses its mysterious and slightly threatening aspects.
With respect to time, the tangle of data and negations, existence and inactuality, can be untangled through the realization that time is produced by a system in order to organize its operations and make them more complex. This is why time both exists and also does not exist at the same time. It does not exist as an independent entity, but only as an actual projection of a system that uses references to the past and future in order to structure its present operations.
Time does not exist in an absolute sense, only for the system. The mere actuality, that is, the immediate presence of the present, leaves us no freedom. Modal logic shows that, in the present, the possible and the necessary coincide, because what is could not be different5 it will be different in the future, it could be different in the past, it can be different for another observer, but, at the moment, it is what it is, and there are no spaces of variation.
To generate a certain contingency, to vary, design, correct and learn, we require a dimension that allows us to separate from the actual data and compare them to other possibilities. This comparison can come about through reference to other observers, or through reference to other presents, to presently inactual actualities projected onto the horizons of the past and of the future.
Systems theory explains the genesis of time on the basis of the enormous advantages it offers. Time allows the system to separate itself from its own operations and its situation, linking it with other past and future situations in a complex framework of connections where uniformities, influences and corrections can be found.
One talks then of time binding, of the production of restrictions. It is not time itself that is bound what happens, happens, and one cannot determine the future , but time that binds, that creates links between different operations that constrain each other. The bindings that make the present a result of the past and prepare for what will become its future work, even if the future remains unknown and therefore liable to be surprising and if the future comes to be other than predicted.
The future in which we project and plan remains an open future, but we can address this openness in a structured manner. Time, as we have seen, binds the system and not the world, and it is precisely this binding that is valuable. By referring to time, the system produces an order via the difference in relation to the environment and not against it. It is for this reason that it is inappropriate to use causal concepts when dealing with time.
Time is not the cause of anything. It does not exist directly in the world and cannot exert any impact upon it. The open future combines with an order in time succession that is not at all random and remains even if one considers the fact that constraints are not unidirectional, always proceeding from the past to the future, but can instead be understood as multidirectional, proceeding from the future to the past.
The present prepares the future through its actions, but the framework of expectations and projections orients the behaviour of the system in each present. It is because the reality of the future fails to coincide with our imagination that we manage to avoid getting blocked by the aforementioned inconsistencies of time. One learns not only by acquiring new data, but also by changing the way in which previously known data are considered, thereby avoiding problems of identity.
Time binding means, among other things, that the system remains the same, and recognizes itself as the same, even when it assumes contradictory attitudes, thereby changing what it had previously thought and wanted. This change is possible, given that it occurs in another present, linked to the first only by time and not by fixed and unchangeable identities. It is a binding that binds only to a limited extent, but, nonetheless, always connects, allowing an order to be maintained even when almost everything changes.
This relativity, however, is rarely radicalized. One therefore continues to work under the impression that there is an autonomous time dimension, a time that serves as a stable reference and influences both concepts and attitudes. This is certainly connected with the fact that historicism is associated with chronology, the again typically modern idea of an abstract succession of dates that extends infinitely backwards and forwards, and remains completely determined for instance, we know that there will be a 28 April , even if we know nothing of what will happen on that day.
But time is not a date or sequence of dates, and the radicalization of historicism should lead us to recognize that time far from being a stable reference constantly changes with the passing of time. Time actually renews itself in each present, in so far as what is happening always adds something new to the past, thereby changing its meaning, and modifying what we had originally expected the future to be, in that things that no one could have previously imagined before are made possible.
The horizons of past and future regenerate themselves in each present. This is the internal reflexivity of time,10 which indicates that time is not a simple difference between past and future, but an intertwining of differences that are indefinitely reproduced within the two horizons. The past and the future include a multiplicity of past and future presents, each with its own horizons of past and future that reconstruct the whole of time from their unique perspective. The present past the way we look back today and consider what preceded us is always different from the past present the way we saw things then , in the same way as the present future M - ESPOSITO.
In order to deal adequately with time and the resulting constraints the bindings with which we are concerned , however, it is not enough to consider this multiplication of perspectives, perspectives that seem indeterminate and uncoupled from each other as though time persisted untouched and univocal from one present to another.
The situation is far more articulate and recursive than this. The different presents are connected by a complex network of reciprocal influences, which serve to constitute the real structure of the temporal dimension. What appears today as past also depends on how the past has prepared its future and, above all given the obsession with the future in our society , the present observes itself as the past of the future presents that it tries to anticipate11 and that will presumably be different from these expectations.
The present always tries to be the right past for the expected future. Furthermore and here we are entering the intertwining of conditionings that give way to the problems of uncertainty we want to deal with , the observers know that this is the case, and can distinguish between what is present today and what will be the past in the future.
They can also observe themselves from this point of view. Observers know, for instance, that they will presumably think differently about present issues tomorrow, and may even be aware of the fact that, in recollection, their perspectives will look different from how they do now. They do so with the knowledge that the freedom to decide differently once that future has become present a present they will have contributed to and where they know how to intervene will remain intact.
As we shall see, many operations of the financial markets use this temporal structure. With this approach, time becomes very complex, but remains fully operational. The puzzles of time solve themselves eventually turning back into problems. Time as both problem and solution at the same time is produced by systems in order to generate a certain freedom of choice, to grant options.
Time allows us to order our choices and proceed in a non-random way. It connects our choices with others. The world that we act upon and that is constrained by these choices, however, remains largely unknown. We always have limited information, both concerning the behaviour of others who are oriented to us and also concerning the future that will result from our choices. Even if the world is unknown, one still has a known and acceptable orientation in so far as one can even apply, as will be made explicit later in relation to the case of the economy, criteria of rationality and calculation procedures that can always be revised in a future present.
In this way, coherence can be maintained even when self-contradiction occurs. From this point of view, the uncertainty and obscurity of the future, while initially presented as a problem, become a resource.
In the face of a future that is unknown, but known to be bound to our decisions, they are subject to an open but not a random future. While this can seem quite abstract, it remains a condition that one can work with.
One can speculate, with very concrete consequences in terms of gains and losses, about what is of concern. One makes decisions that determine an indeterminate future. One then uses the resulting constraints e.
In any case, one can work with the difference between different presents particularly the difference between present future and future present , knowing that each of them, when the prediction turns out to be true, becomes actual and determined and yet remains indeterminate on the horizons of the inactuality of another present as a past that cannot be changed, but is remembered selectively and used when convenient, and especially as an unpredictable future.
They are not, however, inactual in the same way. This is why time can bind itself and give structure to the observations of the systems. The past can no longer be changed, while the future depends on what we are doing at present one cannot act upon the past, while one must act into the future.
The past, however, is not equally flexible if it were that open, it would not be possible to settle any structure or form any binding. The reflexivity of time would immediately reflect on itself in an infinite game of crossreferences with no holds, handles or limits. The past cannot be changed, and, thereby, provides an orientation.
The future depends on the past although in the form of discontinuity, and not that of continuity , not because knowledge of the past teaches us what will happen in the future, but because it teaches us how the future will be different. As we have seen, each present reconstructs time as a whole, and not only the future. Each present changes the image of a past that is seen as immutable what changes is the image of what cannot be changed, the position from which one has to start in order to design the future, which is seen, contrarily, as open and modifiable.
The schema of a given past that influences an indefinite future remains even if the form of this determination changes in the transition from one present to another. The past could have come about otherwise. However, things have transpired in this way and can no longer be changed, even if the way in which the resources made available by the past and their meaning in the memory can be changed.
A defeat a dismissal, a failure can be reformulated as an opportunity as having offered an opportunity for a different career, for example , but nonetheless remains the starting point for future endeavours. The past, then, serves primarily as a means of selection. Everything could be possible, but only some possibilities come about, and these condition the possibilities that are made available for the future.
The future is, therefore, both determined and indeterminate at the same time. One knows where one has to start from, but does not know how although one may know that this will affect the meaning of the present that decides it and the meaning of the past that determines it.
This is why the form of the determination appears different according to the direction one considers. Looking at the future, one sees an opening the fact that one does not know what will happen , and looking at the past, one sees a closure the fact that certain things are no longer possible today. One can also consider that this decision will restrict what will be possible in the future it closes the future. The evaluation of possibilities depends on the present from which one starts.
Since the past and future are asymmetric, time can be built as a mirroring of possibilities that open and close without thereby getting lost in arbitrariness , as a continuous mirroring where the future includes a future present from which I can look at my present as past, without sinking in the mirror and losing every orientation. Time acquires a structure that remains, in so far as the future turns on the past every past present brings along projections of possibilities and not the simple actuality of the given; that is, what one expected and not only what has been.
On an operational level, it is this structure that allows systems to use time, and, in particular, to exploit the ignorance of the future, the uncertainty and the imperfection of information.
In making decisions, operators face a future they do not, and cannot, know, with flexible and revisable planning, ready to learn from the future experience not only from disappointments when things go wrong.
One makes a decision and introduces a conditioning for the future state of the system for example, when one buys options, which refer to a future moment and leaves it open to the future to decide what orientation to take when the consequences of the initial decision can be observed one can decide later whether or not to exercise them. One introduces a conditioning, not a determination. One does not exclude possibilities, but rather offers opportunities that produce information that is used in new and as yet unpredictable ways.
The opening of the future, in this sense, lies not only in the fact that one does not know which option will be realized, but also in the fact that one does not know what options and acts today would best accord with it. This opening turns ignorance into a resource. The temporal integration of the system the fact that the different presents all belong to the same time is not given once and for all on the basis of the fact that the past precedes the future, but is instead continuously produced and revised as time progresses the constraints introduced M - ESPOSITO.
The future redescribes the past in accordance with how it remembers the way in which the past present had projected its future, and recognizes itself as the future of that past, as a different perspective inside the same time selections have an order, and that, as we have already stated, is what time is needed for.
The system, however, is not normally alone. We must therefore consider how constructions are affected and influenced by those of others. The uncertainty of the future is multiplied by the uncertainty of the behaviour of all other operators who are oriented to the same future, further increasing the complexity, but also offering the possibility of structuring it.
However, they also have social support, in so far as the uncertainty appears less uncertain if others handle it in the same way. How temporal contingency combines with social contingency can be seen, for example, in the modern phenomenon of fashion, born not by chance in the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries, when the idea of a motionless eternity began to be abandoned. This idea of eternity was understood to be fixed and identical for everyone, and therefore certain.
All that one needed were the tools with which to contemplate it, as God can. For God, past, present and future are all accessible — that is, contemporary. The modern concept of time, however, which is built on the difference between past and future, generalizes ignorance.
Nobody, not even God, can know a future that does not exist, because the future depends on the present and on the decisions that are undertaken in the present. In these conditions, it becomes necessary and, for the first time, plausible to use orientations that hold even if they are only transient. The strange thing is that we know this, but they seem to work nevertheless.
With regard to fashion, it is only in modern times that it has become not only acceptable, but also socially necessary, to orient to novelties, to forms that are not based on stability and tradition, but instead rely on variability and discontinuity. They worked because of the intertwining of temporal contingency with social contingency.
One does not know what one can expect for the future, but this same truth holds for everyone else, and the uncertainty is thereby generalized. The seeming nonsense of taking something that changes and that we know changes as a reference, and as the only stable reference, becomes empty when one sees that others do the same thing.
This generates a transitional safety out of the combination of two dimensions of insecurity. Norms bind time in so far as they refuse to learn. They establish how it is that one must behave in order to immunize oneself from disappointments. The problem with the future is that we cannot know if we shall regard our present behaviour as correct, given that we shall be in a different and partly unforeseeable situation.
Norms protect us from this uncertainty in that they establish that they will continue to hold even if someone goes against or violates them. This has the advantage of allowing one to know today how it is that one will judge in the future, and, in this sense, one does not have to worry that tomorrow under conditions one does not know and with information one cannot predict one will regret the choice made.
The norm does not change. It holds across different moments, both for the individual and for others, who, at least ideally, confirm the same expectation for example, they also know that one must not cross when the lights are red.
We shall discuss scarcity and money further in the next few chapters. The link with the social dimension lies in the circulation of money. The loss of liquidity of the one who buys spends money translates into increased liquidity by the one who sells receives money.
One can rely on the fact that others will accept the money one accumulates today at least in so far as the monetary system works in the future even if no one knows or can foresee how they will use it.
The problem is that all forms of time binding have social costs, because they not only bind time, but they also bind the opportunities and perspectives of all other operators. For example, all children must go to school at the same age and follow the same pace, even if some of them could, in fact, go more quickly. Parents must follow the norm, and this reassures against possible doubts and future regrets, albeit only to a certain extent, given that in some cases one cannot avoid considering the possibility that, in the future, things will appear differently, either to oneself or to someone else, and will no longer neutralize the excluded possibilities for instance, when qualifications lose their importance and work experience becomes more important.
The possibility for changing the norms when the circumstances change always remains — for instance, if the majority in the government should change as shown by the transitory nature of fashion, mentioned earlier. We follow an orientation even if we know that it can change often because of this fact. However, as long as it holds, it must be respected.
Sometimes, the reflexivity of time introduces a future contingency into the present that cannot be bound typically in cases of possible disasters, where one cannot avoid anticipating the possible, albeit unlikely, future regret for something today. How can one accept the production of GMOs even if it is legal if one cannot dismiss the possibility that by now they produce unpredictable genetic damages?
The fact that the law permits this production is not enough to reassure me; the law itself does not know what to do. The problem is always uncertainty, which assumes new and difficult forms to be managed. In these cases, the norms tend to adopt an orientation towards consequences, consequences that, when taken literally, mean depriving the very meaning of normativity. The current constraint, which should neutralize future uncertainties, in that the only problem should be deviance, that the norm is violated, comes to depend on these same uncertainties it could happen that one has reason to regret even if one followed the rule.
Time binding comes back upon itself in that one cannot bind time simply because one anticipates the consequences of the binding. Something similar happens with money. One accumulates money to protect oneself against possible future needs I do not know what I shall need, but I know that I shall be able to buy it. This only works if money circulates, because then one knows that others will also accept it.
The very social circulation of money, however, with the mechanism of credit and the corresponding complexity,24 questions this reassurance. Speculation on financial markets shows this clearly.
In order to accumulate money, it can, in fact, be most effective to spend it, activating the mechanism of multiplication that produces the further availability of money for the future. One who saves, then, in fact loses money the money they could have earned and, in the future, could be in the situation of not being able to buy what they could have afforded if they had invested in this sense, the attempt to reassure towards an obscure future becomes something of a threat.
In these conditions, where the future sneaks in a future view of the actual present, the balance with which we are familiar tends to break down. The typical alliance between the social and the temporal dimension in modern society, where the uncertainty of the future is governed by reference to the uncertainty of the behaviour of others, which in turn is governed by referring to an unknown future, has seemed to work so far.
The mechanism has apparently worked to the extent that these two levels have remained separate. Should these two dimensions of uncertainty begin to affect each other, the solution will begin to waver25 I do not know what others do, but I know that it [also] depends on my expectation.
I do not know what will take place tomorrow, but I know that it [also] depends on the way others are trying to reassure themselves. In these conditions, we also need more complex forms of time management, which include the intertwining of social reflexivity and temporal reflexivity, and increasing rather than neutralizing them. On this level, we remain poorly equipped for instance, we are still surprised by every new speculative bubble, and fail to understand the intertwining of expectations and reactions behind them.
It concerns the relationship of the present with an unknown future, and the opportunities and threats this relationship entails. The indefinite future is a space of promises and hopes, but it is also a space of possible damage and anguish.
Risk comes into play when, beyond mere fate, one considers the way future events depend on present behaviour — that is, as opportunities to build or as possible failures the two aspects are linked in that if we do not expose ourselves to possible damages, we cannot enjoy possible benefits. Whoever does not risk does not win More or less explicitly, the question of risk always concerns the construction of the future, the awareness that future opportunities depend on present choices which are always uncertain, because the future that one constructs remains obscure.
We talk of risk when we have to decide what behaviour to adopt today, already knowing that in the future we shall either enjoy or regret our behaviour when one adopts the perspective of a future present in the present, one may suffer a damage that can be attributed to the present decision.
If I had not invested in actions x, which are now devalued, I would still have my money. The same is the case if things go well. If I had not invested my money, I would now have much less of it. If I had saved my money, I would now have suffered a loss. If things go well or badly, one will be more or less inclined to accept risks — that is, a positive feedback that can lead to an uncontrolled accumulation of risks, as the dynamics of the financial markets demonstrate.
Thus, risk can never be avoided. I risk if I choose to take the opportunity and then things go wrong, but I also risk if I prefer to abstain, and then lose the gain.
The world has nothing to say on the matter, because the issue refers to a future that does not yet exist and, as such, cannot offer either positive or negative hints. There are no norms or criteria of rationality that can guarantee that I shall not regret in the future because nothing says that, in this future that does not exist, I shall think the same way, favouring prudence or temerity at all costs, should things go badly.
Risk forces us to face a still more radical discontinuity, which separates the future from the present because we know that the first will be the result of the second. The future is not only unknown, but also unknowable, given that what we can predict are only its non-future aspects. Time itself, including the future assessment of our actual present, is generated in time, but does not exist alone. It is generated because the present decision produces a difference to what would result from the past if one had decided otherwise, and one always sees it from the perspective of the present.
Here the world can offer no reference. Only the actual or expected behaviour of others — that is, the reference to the social dimension — can fulfil this function. We are not alone a circumstance that at first further increases the risks , and opportunities can be lost if they are seized by others.
Norms can be ineffective because others do not respect them. In such circumstances, the one who follows them not only loses an advantage, but looks like a fool. The fact that we are not alone, however, is also a guarantee and can serve to curb the spread of reflexivity, not so much because others will do or think like us recognizing the norm or accepting money , but rather because they will behave as a result of having observed what we have done and are doing they build financial transactions starting from our investments; they violate the norms counting on the fact that we respect them.
One can speculate on this fact, and build forms that allow for time to bind itself by exploiting the diversity and mutual nontransparency of observers this would be a different form of time binding, one that multiplies social contingencies by temporal contingencies. Decisions made under risk, the overwhelming mode of decision-making in our society, show how one can create bindings without assuming an alliance of the temporal and social dimensions as was the case with norms and money.
Instead, one starts by assuming the tension between them without assuming that the uncertainty of others is bound by my uncertain decision, but is instead multiplied by my uncertainty.
Yet there is a kind of order that arises, however recursive, circular and revisable. What multiplies is the diversity of perspectives that come into play and are accepted the difference between present present and future present, and the difference between the perspective of the one who decides and that of those affected by the decision. They then observe the same decision in a divergent way, seeing what the decision-maker sees and what they failed to consider for instance, that they believe a rational operation to be in play and that they are able to monitor the consequences ahead of time, while a different observer might discover that the very pretence of rationality has shortcomings and can lead to damage, or can exploit these shortcomings in order to make profits, either as a free rider or as a speculator.
There is no higher perspective from which to establish who is right, as there is no overarching temporal perspective that can coordinate the present and the future but the two points of view would not exist if one had not decided something. The most effective way, one that our society is beginning to experiment with, is a form of time binding that produces determinacy and indeterminacy at the same time.
It binds the future as much as is needed to be able to decide and know what to correct. The present decision does not claim to predict or determine the future, but only to create a constraint from which different perspectives of other observers, of other presents, or both can start to make other probably different decisions. The future does not exist by itself, and remains elusive if we do not do anything from which we can deviate later. The present creates the future, not as an identity, but as a difference, and this even with regard to itself.
One only discovers afterwards the meaning of what one has done, on the basis of the consequences and of the reactions it provoked that is, enabling the different perspectives of the future and of other observers. These remain different, but on the basis of the decision, this difference can be used to compare and to correct, thereby building an identity that would not be there if one had not made the decision.
The meaning of the binding remains that minimal continuity, in terms of both mobility and flexibility, between the contingency of time and the contingency of observers. Differences are produced, in terms of what would have otherwise happened, and can be shared.
The future and other observers remain unpredictable, but can still be observed, serving to generate data from which we can start in the future. This is the only form of control one can acquire, but it is enough to carry on the operations in a non-random way.
We anticipate the reference to financial markets. With regard to derivatives markets, for instance, current investments are not bound to a price or decision one is not obliged to buy or sell , but only set a constraint that will allow for later decisions to be made whether or not to buy , depending on how others react to the constraint and the developments it generates.
One buys contingency i. One builds the future without planning or determining it. One produces only the possibility that it becomes possible without knowing or having to know how.
In this meaning of risk, the obscurity of the future is used to produce opportunities that arise because the future is indeterminate and nobody can know how it will come about. The uncertainty of the future, usually seen as the main problem that makes all risky situations puzzling how do I decide if I know that I can never reach any security, and I fear that I shall have regrets? The obviously paradoxical challenge is to generate uncertainty and be prepared to react to it, to grasp the unforeseen developments of what we expect today in unpredictable ways.
As we shall see, this highly abstract capacity is actually applied in the everyday practice of risky decisions and, in particular, in the very concrete production of wealth on financial markets.
In sociological perspective primarily systems: See Luhmann , p. Luhmann a , p. Think only of the future of Oedipus, already fixed in the past independently of what he can do in the present.
Thereby the risk of confusion between necessitas consequentiae and necessitas consequentis, as the Scholastics recognized. See Luhmann a , p. Again, only for our society. See Luhmann , pp. Again Luhmann , p. See Shackle a , pp.
Luhmann distinguishes function of memory past and function of oscillation future: The future of futures That is, not only in the sense of a branched decision tree, where the future has only the possibility to choose the bifurcation, not to build a different path, or even a different tree. See the later discussion on the methods for the pricing of derivatives: Chapter 8, section 3. See Esposito , pp.
See, more extensively, Esposito In the same way temporal contingency neutralizes social contingency: But they do it following — as all or virtually all others — the dictates of a fashion that changes constantly, i. Here I follow Luhmann , pp. We shall see this in more detail later: To continue with our example: One talks then of anti-fashion or of the end of fashion, but they also become fashionable and pass on.
The same situation is indicated in economic literature, since the very influential work of Frank Knight , as uncertainty, while risk indicates a form of insecurity that can be controlled by planning and calculation — precisely the opposite of the sociological sense.
The terminological difference can produce some confusion. This distinguishes risk from danger. One talks of risk when the possible future damage is attributed by the decision-makers to their own behaviour as by reckless driving , while one talks of danger when the damage is attributed to the external circumstances or to the behaviour of others e.
I know now that I shall not say that it was my fault, and this helps me decide. On the distinction between risk and danger, see Luhmann , pp. However, we can insure ourselves against these uncertainties. This gives us the impression that we are protected against them. Insurance, however, cannot guarantee that the things we fear will not come about, only that we shall be compensated should they arise. Insurance transforms diffuse dangers into economic risks. The economy has a very close relationship with risk section 1.
Money, therefore, is not needed in order to satisfy present needs, but to manage the uncertainty of the future. Its essence is time. This temporal aspect of economic exchanges and credit was rejected in both antiquity and the Middle Ages section 2.
The idea that one could create wealth through the circulation of money was believed to go against the natural order of things. One who lends money, such as a usurer, for example, creates wealth by selling time. Time, however, does not belong to men, but to God. In modern society, where it was accepted that the movement of money does not destroy the order of things, but only creates a different order that benefits everyone, this attitude changed. The reference to goods and needs became much more abstract.
Ascribing monetary worth translates each value into a sum of money, in the sense that everything now has a price, even when one has no intention of selling. The whole world can be seen as capital — and money can stand for everything section 3.
There is no need to possess many objects, but only to have much money, because it is money that allows one to possess any object should it become necessary. Given that one cannot know what one will need in the future, one can never have enough money. However much one has, one always needs more in order to feel prepared for tomorrow.
In this sense, money allows one to possess a little of the future. The economy, however, not only presents particularly evident and widespread risks, but seems to attract the risks produced in other areas of society into its orbit, transforming them into its own specific forms.
Each economic operation, in this view, involves risk taking. However, the economy translates risks coming from other areas into its own operations, because it offers the possibility for insuring paying against the worrying prospect of a future damage from any source. One can make an insurance, which as the term itself says compensates risk with safety, albeit only an economic safety.
If one is worried that one will become ill, suffer an accident, or hurt others, insurance provides no guarantee that the dreaded event will not transpire, only that one will receive a sum of money in the event that it does. The specific and concrete danger of damage, then, does not disappear at all. Instead, it turns into an economic risk. This risk is one of wasting money on the insurance policy should things go well, or the risk of not being insured should things go wrong.
One has the impression of being better equipped for a damage that has been translated into monetary terms. This protection against a threatening future is indeed the basic feature of all economic operations, and is, in fact, the real function of the economy.
While it is true that payments are always meant to satisfy needs, and are, therefore, generally considered to be the primary function of the economy,1 a thorough examination of the concept of need appears extremely tricky, and is so heavily influenced by the economy itself that its function becomes implausible.
It becomes a demand generated by the very economy that has to satisfy it. Where must the demarcation line between basic needs and induced needs, luxury needs and demonstrative needs, be drawn?
If needs were an anthropological given or an elementary requirement, they would be restricted to the lower strata of society and, therefore, more or less quickly satisfied we do not have many basic needs. However, needs are never exhausted and therefore do not disappear. In this view, one cannot explain the spread of the needs that spare no member of society.
One cannot even explain the fact that there is never enough money, however rich we are, because there is no limit to the abstract urgency of needs. This is due to money itself and not to the needs. We need money now because we do not know what we may need in the future, and we are, therefore, always in need, not of goods, but of money. Rather than satisfy needs, the monetary economy seems to generate the needs upon which it operates.
Without money, there would not be the needs that money serves to satisfy. If needs are never exhausted and affect all members of society, then perhaps they have nothing to do with what we need today, but instead address the indeterminate horizon where uncertainty is never controlled, the open and unpredictable future, where we never know which needs may arise.
We cannot know what we shall need, and we therefore need more and more money in order to deal with this uncertainty. The reference of money thereby becomes the uncertainty of the future, and not needs themselves.
This becomes the true reference of the economy. The economy, one should say, is not concerned with material needs, but with time, the open, uncertain and recursive time that appears as risk and tends to merge into the economy. Eric Voegelin stated this almost a century ago: Concerns about the future are intensified through the awareness of not being alone, through the awareness that others also try to satisfy their needs — and one never knows if there will be sufficient goods for everyone.
The function of the economy is to guarantee the future supply of goods under conditions of scarcity,4 to ensure that we will be equipped to satisfy needs that we cannot yet know, while others will do the same and will be striving for the same resources. Money and its social use has as its primary meaning a non-specific reassurance against the indeterminacy of the future relying on the indeterminacy of money, which does not have its own utility but stays for an undetermined range of possible utilities.
One knows that one will have needs despite not knowing what these needs will be. This lack of knowledge becomes a guarantee when one faces it, not by accumulating resources which may be unnecessary , but by accumulating money that will translate into different resources when necessary.
Whatever these needs are, we shall be able to cope with them by means of money. Because others are doing the same thing, I am warranted in believing that this money will serve to satisfy my needs.
Money circulates, is accepted today by both myself and others, and will presumably be accepted in the future. This dependence on others turns into a guarantee against concerns about the uncertainty of the future.
In the view of many observers, this is what distinguishes specifical economic trade from an interest in immediate bargaining, barter and exchange — that is, a system of promises that refers to the future, which in turn transforms mutual dependence into a general guarantee. This was why societies oriented to stability and repetition that is, to the neutralization of temporal contingency tended to condemn economic acting and rejected it as an element of degeneration and, therefore, as a threat.
In the Aristotelian sense that of Greek and Roman antiquity and the Middle Ages , the economy excludes what is for us and for modernity its essence and its specificity, the exchange and the creation of wealth.
It was always oriented to the stability, symmetry, conservation and confirmation of a given order. What belongs to one person is subtracted from another. Exchange was admitted if it referred to necessary goods, to the given and to the present mainly in the form of barter.
In short, the economy was good in so far as it remained attached to nature, to the present and to the available data, possibly circulating them in order to balance needs. It became suspect when it claimed to create wealth, increasing the availability of money in a way that altered the constancy of nature and the world, mainly because it referred to time. Chrematistic forms of acquisition depend on human laws and conventions, and therefore affect the immediate natural data.
Above all, they used these social agreements to generate wealth, and in ways that seemed suspicious. In antiquity, money was lent, but this was deemed acceptable in so far as the sum remained fixed, in so far as no mechanisms were activated for the creation of credit through the circulation of money.
Money was not lent for the purpose of investment, but for the purpose of compensating for the ups and downs of production due to natural disasters, wars or other external factors. This was the justification for the centuries-old condemnation of credit, which was associated with usury and considered even worse than theft9 which, as with piracy or war looting, could also be accepted, because it did not modify the range of goods at stake, but only their distribution, in ways corresponding to social relations of force.
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